Democrats will likely lose the House in 2022 — but beyond the midterms, electoral dynamics will be completely changed compared to the 2010s.
Currently President Joe Biden holds a -9.6 net disapproval rating, or an approval rating of just 42.5%, compared to his disapproval rating of 52.1%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregator. Democrats are on track to lose the House of Representatives, as the incumbent president’s party has a strong tradition of doing so in their first midterm. However, this time it’ll be different from when Republicans captured a 49 seat majority in 2010, or when they captured a 59 seat House majority in 2014.
The 2010s was dominated by GOP gerrymandered congressional maps in countless states across the country. The 2021/2022 redistricting cycle is shaping up quite differently. Democrats have passed gerrymanders in California, Oregon, Nevada, New Mexico, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, and are poised to gerrymander New York. For the first time in a long time, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, and Florida are looking they’ll be getting fair maps. While the GOP has gotten some redistricting wins in Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, and slightly so Arizona, both sides are gerrymandering hard right now. The overall map will be way more balanced than it was in the 2010s.
Even though Democrats will likely lose control of the House in 2022, they have a strong shot at winning it back in 2024. Democrats won the U.S. House popular vote in 2012 by 1.1%, yet the GOP won a 33 seat majority. Going forward, the House is more expected to better represent the national mood of the country.
Ultimately, the solution to having fair maps in all states is a federal ban on gerrymandering, and while both parties gerrymander, the Democrats are the only ones pushing for a federal ban on gerrymandering.
